Short-Run Implications of Cap-and-Trade versus Baseline-and-Credit Emission Trading Plans: Experimental Evidence

Neil J. Buckley
Ph.d. Candidate 

McMaster University


Job Market Paper, November 8th 2004
 

Abstract


Two approaches to emissions trading are cap-and-trade, in which an aggregate cap on emissions is distributed in the form of allowance permits, and baseline-and-credit, in which firms earn emission reduction credits for emissions below their baselines. Theoretical considerations suggest the long-run equilibria of the two plans will differ if baselines are instituted in the form of an emission technology performance standard because this creates a subsidy to output that results in increased emissions. This is in opposition to the prediction that, when firm output capacity is fixed, the short-run equilibria of the two plans will be identical. As a first step towards testing the long-run model, this paper reports on a laboratory experiment designed to test the short-run prediction. A computerized environment has been created in which subjects representing firms choose emission echnologies under fixed output capacity and participate in markets for emission rights and for output. Our evidence supports the theoretical prediction that the two trading mechanisms yield similar aggregate emissions, however significant differences between plan outcomes are discussed and both plans exhibit significant deviations from the predicted equilibrium.

Neil J. Buckley, "Short-Run Implications of Cap-and-Trade versus Baseline-and-Credit Emission Trading Plans: Experimental Evidence", November 2004, Manuscript. [Abstract | pdf | Appendix A (Screenshots) | Appendix B (Instructions)]

Send Correspondence to:

Neil J. Buckley
Department of Economics
McMaster University
Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4M4
Canada
e-mail: nbuckley@mcmaster.ca


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